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CoastMath estimates financial independence as the first year that starts with enough money to cover 25 years of spending. The test runs at each year-end: CoastMath takes your account balances, subtracts your debts, and checks whether the result is more than 25 times that year’s spending. If it is, the estimate lands in the following year. The estimate is a marker only. It never changes the projection, and nothing can start or stop at it until you turn it into a milestone of your own.
Estimate lands the next year when=Year-end balances of all accounts−Year-end debt>25×That year’s spending
Both sides are measured in the same year’s dollars, so no inflation adjustment is needed. The balance must be strictly greater than the target; equal isn’t enough.
- Accounts include every account at its full balance: cash, taxable, retirement accounts before tax, HSAs and education savings.
- Property value isn’t counted, but every loan is subtracted, including a mortgage on your home. If your debts exceed your account balances, the estimate can’t be reached.
- Spending counts every expense paid in the year:
- Essential, discretionary and uncategorized expenses
- Loan payments
- Property tax, maintenance and insurance
- Health coverage
- Charitable gifts
Because the test uses year-end figures, the earliest possible estimate is the plan’s second year. Crossing the line in the last projected year produces no estimate, because the following year isn’t projected.
This plan starts in January 2026. It has $1,500,000 in savings, a $150,000 salary, $50,000 a year of living expenses and a $120,000 loan paid at $1,000 a month without interest. To keep the numbers simple, there is no investment growth and no tax.
| Spending each year: $50,000 living + $12,000 loan payments | $62,000 | |
|---|---|---|
| × | Multiple | 25 |
| = | Target | $1,550,000 |
| End of 2026: $1,588,000 in accounts − $108,000 loanBelow the target | $1,480,000 | |
| End of 2027: $1,676,000 in accounts − $96,000 loanAbove the target | $1,580,000 | |
| → | Estimate lands in | 2028 |
A “Financial independence (multiple of expenses)” milestone set to 25× and “Liquid accounts minus debt” takes effect in 2028 in the same plan. If the salary is set to end at that milestone, the last paycheck is in December 2027.
The estimate is listed first under Milestones as “Financial independence (CoastMath estimate)”. The listing shows “25× expenses (liquid)”, followed by the year it is reached or “not reached in projection”. The estimate also marks the Overview net-worth chart, and it appears in the printable report and in the summary you share. When the estimate is never reached, the chart notes “Financial independence is not reached within this plan.”
The estimate doesn’t appear on the Success odds tab. Only milestones are tracked across trials there (see Milestones and event timing).
Replace it with your own milestone
- Next to the estimate under Milestones, select Edit.
- The form opens as “Make the FI estimate your milestone”, already set to Financial independence (multiple of expenses), 25× and Liquid accounts minus debt. Change the multiple or the balance measured if you want to.
- Save the form. The new milestone replaces the estimate everywhere.
With the same settings, your milestone lands in the same year as the estimate. As a milestone, you can end a salary at it, start withdrawals or spending at it, or base relative milestones on it, and the Success odds tab reports its timing. Any milestone of this trigger type replaces the estimate. If you have more than one, the first one in the list is treated as your financial independence date.
Hide it
Select Remove to hide the estimate for this plan. To bring it back, select Restore the CoastMath financial independence estimate.
The iPhone app lists the same estimate under Milestones, where you can also make it your own.
Nothing about the estimate is a guarantee or a recommendation. It is one fixed threshold applied to your projection. Read the overview and net worth shows how the same year appears on the Overview.